Zack Duhaime, Meteorologist
About Me
I graduated with a bachelor’s degree in meteorology and a minor in broadcast journalism during the fall of 2019 from Western Connecticut State University. Weather has been a passion of mine since I was 5 years old. Growing up in Hamden, Connecticut, I can remember sitting on the back of my Nonnie’s couch watching the snow fall during snow days. After taking earth science in middle school, I knew for sure that I wanted to become a meteorologist. I am currently searching for a job in broadcast meteorology, and hope to stay as close as possible to my home state of Connecticut.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
3/18/2021
WINTER’S LAST GASP WITH IMPECCABLE TIMING?
The official last day of winter is Friday, March 19th and for once, Mother Nature may actually play nice and wrap up winter right on time and begin a fairly consistent spring pattern starting on the 1st official day of spring, which is Saturday Marc 20th. That said, we have to make it through cold and a touch of snow first…
BREAKING THINGS DOWN
Rain is currently falling on this Thursday afternoon as a big storm system slides to our south. At the same time, a strong cold high-pressure system is pushing in from the north. What this means is that while temps may be well into the 40s through the evening, they fall overnight, likely below freezing for many around the Friday morning commute. There is also the chance for a touch of snow! The latest guidance indicates that the timing of the cold air is just too late for any real accumulation. Still, with cold air rushing in, some slick spots can be expected although a breezy wind should help dry things up and prevent any widespread icing issues. Some flakes could still be flying with a coating not being ruled out for some, but for most, its nothing.
Friday however, will still be very winter-like with 30s for highs and a breezy wind after the AM snow showers end. Good news? Just as the season change occurs from winter to spring, so does the weather pattern! Start Saturday, highs look to be in the 50s and 60s right through a good part of next week! While I am fairly confident in saying that the consistent cold shots are in the past, there will defiantly still be some colder days in the weeks ahead as is usual during the month of April.
Spring is a transition season. From the harsh winter cold and snow to the intense summer heat and humidity. Overall, expect a warmer pattern to take over but there’s always room for some colder days as well. While I believe we can finally put away the snow boots and shovels, but let’s not forget that there have been freak snowstorms well into April in the past…
QUICK RECAP
Friday is the last day of winter. The day starts off with a touch of snow for some, icy patches for others, and a cold wind for everyone. As we begin spring on Saturday, the pattern ironically quickly changings to a spring pattern. 50s and 60s are what I am forecasting for highs for most of next week! I think it is safe to say that our snowfall season has officially come to an end and the show shovels can be put away until next year.
There will defiantly some cold days in the weeks ahead, but warm days likely dominate. With all of that said, in the past, we have seen some freak snow events well into the month of April. In reality, it’s certainly not impossible…
2/26/2021
ALTHOUGH CONSISTENT COLD/SNOW HAS ENDED, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SOUND THE ALL-CLEAR JUST YET…
With just about an entire winter’s worth of snow in the 1st three weeks of February, it can be concluded that this has been the most consistent winter pattern in years. With some 50-degree temps during the last few days of the month, most are wondering if we have turned the corner into spring? Overall, the “consistent’ cold and snow does appear to be behind us as we enter March. That said, I am fairly confident that we are not done with cold and snow just yet…
BREAKING THINGS DOWN
When looking back at why we saw such persistent cold and snow during most of February, a key factor was that there was a nice blocking pattern in place. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) indicator was in its “negative phase” which usually means cold and snow for the northeast as a cold high-pressure system usually comes down from Canada/Greenland along with a favorable storm track just to our south. That means we have the cold from the north, and a storm (moisture) to the south. Storm after storm impacted the area with 5 measurable snow events between the 1st and 18th of February, Insane! That is changing as we speak though. The end to February includes little if any snow besides the hills of CT as usual with 50-degree temps possible as well.
The NAO is trending into more of a “positive” phase, which means the pattern has begun to shift. The jet stream (storm track) will start moving overhead and to our north on average, bringing chances for rain and milder temps. This is very typical as we slowly go from winter to spring. The key word in there was “slowly.”
There are several indications that while they may be brief shots of winter, winter weather isn’t over just yet! The 1st threat for a quick but intense shot of cold comes Monday night. While temps may reach 50 during the day, an Arctic blast with a passing possible snow shower Monday nigh ushers in intense cold. Single digits and teens feeling like below zero Tuesday morning with highs stuck in the 20s and 30s! Very intense for early March. Don’t worry, 50-degree weather returns for Wednesday lol. Then, there is an interesting setup that could bring in another short at cold and even the potential for some type of storm, which could have wintry precip involved. I also like the mid-March timeframe for another storm threat as the NAO may head towards a more negative phase…
QUICK RECAP
Yes, it is fair to say that the overall winter pattern is starting to end. That said, it will not end without a fight! Spring is a transition season, smack in the middle of winter and summer. There will be 60-degree days in the weeks to come. There will also likely be some snow to shovel and cold to withstand. This is nothing new. This is very typical. “Consistent” is the key word. Consistent winter weather like what dominated most of February is over. No doubt about that. This also does not mean that winter is over. While I never guarantee anything, especially when forecasting in the medium-long range, I would personally be shocked if we don’t see at least a touch of snow before the season ends.
7/15/2020
COOL FOR NOW, BIG-TIME HEAT ON THE WAY?
After a warm 1st half of July, we are currently seeing a bit of a cool-down with highs around 80 and lower humidity. That said, it won’t last long. There are indications that the Northeast may see some intense heat with temps well into the 90s, with the heat index breaking 100 starting this weekend and likely peaking on Monday, or even Tuesday!
Breaking Things Down
When: Warm front ushers in the humidity on Friday, with lots of AM clouds and some showers/storms. The heat holds off until Saturday, where temps will be in the 90s for most. The 90s last right through at least Monday before a potential cold front comes through with some potent storms to bring down the heat a bit. The “real feel” temps likely will exceed 100 in spots!
End Time: The worst heat/humidity should end on Monday, but could linger into Tuesday!
Impacts: Those who are in the sensitive group should be very cautious when outside during this intense heat/humidity. Expect beaches/lakes to reach capacity quickly this weekend.
Temps: Well into the 90s away from the shore. Dew points will be around 70 making the mid-90s, feeling closer to 105 at times!
Good News? Though HOT, the weekend looks dry! Hit up your local pool, beach, lake, or take the boat out. Enjoy, but please stay hydrated and limit your time in the direct sun!
5/8/2020
80 LAST WEEKEND, NOW SOME SNOW AND COLD DURING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND…?
2020 has had many surprises. Guess what? We have a big one on the way! From 80 and sun last weekend to some snow and record cold for Mother’s Day Weekend? Sounds crazy but just like everything else in 2020, it is about to become a reality.
Breaking Things Down
Start Time: Lighter rain is expected to be on/off through the rest of Friday. Then, there will be a quick change to snow for some overnight.
End Time: Steady precip ends by 7 AM.
Snowfall Amounts: Coatings on colder surfaces in the higher elevations, MAYBE a few inches in extreme NW CT?
Worst Part: Rain Changing to snow from NW-SE around midnight. Roads remain WET!
Impacts: Those at or above 1000 FT in elevation could wake up to a coating of snow on cars and other colder surfaces. Gusty winds, snow squalls expected on Saturday for all.
Temps: Highs will only be in the low-mid 40s with wind chills in the 20s and 30s at times on Saturday! We may break a record for the coldest “high” temperature.
Good News? Just in time for Mother’s Day, the sun should return and even though temps will still remain well below average, they should approach 60 which will feel hot compared to the day before…
QUICK EXPLANATION
There is a very unusually strong piece of the “Polar Vortex” which will be advancing down from Canada. This will bring in the potential history cold. As we speak, a storm is forming to our southwest and will pass through overnight. Once the winds switch from SE to N, rain will likely change to a quick burst of snow for some. Not Everyone will see flakes and for 75% of people that may see some flakes, it will NOT stick!
Those located in areas of above 1000 FT may see a little coating on cars. In extreme NW CT, A slushy inch or so can’t completely be ruled out. This is not a major snow event. What makes it crazy is that we are in the 2nd week of May and had temps around 80s week ago. To even use the “S” word just doesn’t seem right!
Its not all about the snow either, how about temps that will struggle to reach the mid-40s with a gusty wind making it feel like the 20s-30s at times on Saturday? No packed beaches this Saturday that’s for sure. Also, with some strong upper-level energy digging down from the north, some scattered rain/snow showers will be likely with an outside chance for a rumble of thunder and some hail!
Bottom line, winter makes a fast and furious comeback just a week after temps were near 80. The good news is Sunday (Mother’s Day) looks much better with temps approaching 60, lighter winds, and sun!
4/30/2020
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS TO USHER IN A “BREIF” WARM SHOT TO KICKSTART MAY?
Well, as Justin Timberlake said, “It’s Gonna Be Mayyy!” The month of May looks to start off with a bang. Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected as we ring in the new month overnight tonight into Friday morning. With that said, we have some above average temps that will soon follow!
Breaking Things Down
Start Time: Lighter rain is expected on/off through the rest of Thursday with the heaviest rain overnight Thursday into early Friday AM
End Time: By mid-morning Friday
Rainfall Amounts: 1-2.5 inches! Localized flooding possible.
Worst Part: 2 AM-7AM Friday with gusty winds and very heavy, potentially flooding rain.
Impacts: Localized street flooding, basement flooding, and some small tree branches may come down by sunrise Friday.
Good News? The Warmth! : 60s are expected although there will be a lot of clouds around on Friday afternoon. Near 70 on Saturday with sunny skies and some clouds with highs again approaching 70 on Sunday!
QUICK EXPLANATION
With a strong storm pumping up moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, we can expect a several hour period of heavy rain with gusty SE wind as the axis of heavy rain/strong winds swings through the state from SW to NE. The rain should taper off during the Friday AM commute time frame.
By the afternoon, although the clouds will likely win out, a WNW wind will usher in some mild temps. Highs may soar well into the 60s on Friday, especially with any peaks of sun. Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend with mainly sunny skies and highs around 70! Mild again on Sunday, near 70 but there will be more clouds around especially during the afternoon hours. With more of a WSW wind on Sunday, mid-70s are possible, especially with periods of sun.
Unfortunately, as mentioned in the title of the discussion, this will be a “brief” warm up. Back to the 60s and 50s early next week as the cooler/stormy pattern still looks to hold strong through mid-May…
4/22/2020
FROM A SPRING-LIKE WINTER TO A WINTER-LIKE SPRING?
You don’t need a to be a meteorologist to realize that it has been very chilly, rainy, and windy lately. After a mild and nearly snow-free winter, many towns in norther Connecticut have picked up more snow in April than February and March! But why? Below, I will try to explain what is causing this seasonal pattern to reverse.
BREAKING THINGS DOWN
The one thing that we have lacked all winter was a blocking pattern. Blocking forces cold air to rush down from Canada with a jet stream that usually sets up just to the south of New England. With the jet stream nearby, storms can easily form and ride along the coast, bringing the local area many snowstorms. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) indicator shows this well. When in a negative phase, the pattern mentioned above is what occurs. In a positive phase, the local area usually experiences mild conditions.
This past winter, the NAO was overall VERY positive. There wasn’t any blocking which is why we barely had any cold or snow. It usually trends to a positive phase during March and through spring. Well, practically exactly opposite trend has occurred!
The NAO is currently fairly negative with a blocking pattern constantly in place. This will mean you can expect the ongoing and endless crummy weather pattern to stick around for several more weeks potentially…Rain with some flakes in the colder locations, chilly days/nights, and an annoying breeze, UGH!
QUICK RECAP
Yes, it has been unusually cool and stormy over the past few weeks and this will unfortunately continue for the weeks to come. The reason? A consistent winter-like pattern that we didn’t have in winter, finally has showed up now that is Spring (go figure). The average high/low for late April is about 63 and 42. We are experiencing highs stuck in the 40s and lows in the 20s some days! While there will be some warmer and dry days mixed in, expect a rather stormy and chilly end to April and start to May.
The GOOD NEWS: Crummy weather usually keeps people inside. With the active “Stay Home Stay Safe” order in Connecticut, the cool/damp pattern will likely make people want to stay home. Once it turns sunny and 75, everyone will want to be out and about. At this rate, by the time we warm up, the restrictions may ease.
4/12/2020
NICE ON EASTER, NASTY THE FOLLOWING DAY
After chilly and windy few days, things improve just in time for Easter Sunday! Temps between 55-60 with sun to clouds and a bit of a breeze in the afternoon. Nice weather for Easter egg hunts (with only a few people this year sadly). Then, things turn serious on Monday.
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Rain: The rain begins after midnight on Sunday and lasts through Monday evening, some of which will be heavy (1-2.5” total)!
Wind: The wind will increase Sunday night and become very strong Monday morning through the evening. High Wind Watch is out for the entire state for gusts to 60 MPH!
Worst Part: Heavy Rain/thunder and damaging wind potential around midday on Monday.
Potential Impacts: Notable coastal flooding possible with a wind out of the south, scattered to numerous power outages, downed trees/branches, and localized flooding. Not that you shouldn’t be already, but PLEASE STAY HOME!
QUICK EXPLANATION
There has been a very potent storm tracking through the lower 48 and it will bring devastating severe weather to the Gulf states on Easter sadly. As the storm strengthens and passes over the Great Lakes, a surge of moisture and very strong winds will push through the state from after midnight Sunday through Monday evening.
With a strong pressure gradient and a very intense low-level jet (technical jargon) in place, the threat is there for damaging winds. We can hope for an inversion (more technical jargon) to keep the strongest winds from making it to the surface. If not, winds could easily gust over 60 MPH, especially in the higher terrain. Some models have gusts closer to 70 MPH which would cause major issues with trees and power outages.
There is still time for some change in exactly how much wind/rain we will be impacted by, but as it looks now, prepare for the possibility of power outage and wind damage, costal flooding and localized flooding on Monday.
3/202020
SPRING BEGINS WITH SUMMER-TIME WARMTH AND STRONG STORMS?
Spring officially begins tonight, March 19th 2020 at 11:49 PM! So, the first official day of spring will be on Friday March 20th. How about a summer feel with warm and somewhat humid conditions during the afternoon, along with some strong to potentially severe evening thunderstorms…? It is very possible.
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Rain: A Period of rain followed by some showers are likely during the early to mid-morning hours on Friday before a break in the action. Temps: Temps start off in the 40s, end up in the 60s or higher if we see enough sun during the late afternoon
Strong Storms: Between around 6-9 PM, there could be a line of strong to severe storms that crosses the state from NW-SE. The main threat would be heavy rain, strong winds, and even a low but non-zero threat for a tornado.
Worst Part: Early call is between 6-8 PM on Friday
Impacts: Potential for localized flooding, damaging winds, low tornado threat? Still needs to be fine-tuned throughout the day on Friday.
QUICK EXPLANATION
There will be a fairly potent system riding over the Great Lakes Region. Due o the placement of the storm, we will have a warm front come through during the morning hours on Friday followed by a cold front Friday evening. There will be some morning showers, and the storm threat will all depend on how much sun/destabilization occurs after.
Temps start off in the 40s Friday morning with some rain, but once the front passes north of the area, temps may soar well into the 60s or even into the low 70s in far western CT with enough sun. Dew points will also be on the rise, maybe reaching the 60-degree mark which means it will feel fairly sticky outside, considering its still March!
Then, the big question is how unstable can the atmosphere become? It will all depend on how much daytime heating occurs after the morning rain. Some of the dynamics will be in place for damaging winds, and even an isolated tornado.
Timing is key! We will not know until around lunchtime on Friday whether the atmosphere will become violent. If not, a few evening showers, rumbles of thunder would just about do it.
Guess what? I am also watching the potential for a snow storm on Monday… Spring begins on Friday, which will act more like summer with warmth and storms followed by snow on Monday? This season can’t get any more unusual!
3/6/2020
SO CLOSE YET SO FAR… BLIZZARD JUST MISSES
For you snow lovers, it just doesn’t get any worse than this. Not only have we seen not measurable snow in the 2nd half of January and all of February, we are about to miss out on what would have been an historic March blizzard. I am just about ready to throw the towel in on this season some may call winter!
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Rain/Snow: A few rain showers may transition to some snow showers, especially over eastern and SE CT overnight.
Wind: The wind will become gutsy overnight as the storm rapidly intensifies to the east of the region. Gusts 40 to 40 mph possible in SE CT.
Worst Part: Breezy wind for most, gusty wind with some flake flying over eastern CT. Coatings possible on cold surfaces
Impacts: None? Besides some wind and coatings on colder surfaces over eastern CT, there isn’t anything to worry about.
QUICK EXPLANATION
I have said all through this winterless winter that for us to get a major snow storm, the timing would have to be perfect. Well, we are oh so close to having the perfect time but guess what? We aren’t close enough.
The setup of this storm is classic. A weaker storm moving through the Great Lakes transferring its energy to a more powerful storm off of the southeast US coast. Then, that storm rapidly intensifies into a major storm. The only problem is the transfer of energy is happening over CT. We need for this to happen over the Mid-Atlantic Region in order for the storm to track closer to Connecticut.
The Cape will likely see some snow and very storm winds, but besides eastern CT getting in on a few flakes and a gusty wind, this storm is a miss.
As it looks now, I don’t see any indications of any major snowstorms. At this point, even us snow lovers are just fed up and will just have to wait until next year.
2/26/2020
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GIVES WAY TO LATE WINTER CHILL?
Well, the official end to meteorological winter is a few days away, and the last storm will be (you guessed it) a RAIN storm! The good news is it will not last long and will occur at night. Then, we will finally see some more winter-like temps. Any Snow?
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Rain: Starts around 11 PM Wednesday, ends during the Thursday AM commute from SW-NE
Wind: Starts around 10 PM and lasts through Saturday.
Worst Part: Heavy rain, strong winds with gusts up to 40 mph and a rumble of thunder possible between around 2 AM-7AM Thursday!
Impacts: If you plan on being out tonight, be prepared for heavy wind-driven rain and reduced visibility at times. Eastern CT has the best chance at having a slower Thursday AM commute with a later end to he rain/strongest winds.
QUICK EXPLANATION
With the main storm intensifying and heading over western New York, we will be in for a quick burst of heavy rain and gusty winds. The good news is this occurs overnight but may last into the first part of the Thursday AM commute. Once the rain and the strongest winds end, a consistent breezy and cooler temperatures will take over right through the weekend. A flurry is possible too.
So, with meteorological winter ending, are we now officially done with snow? While consistent cold doesn’t seem likely, after a big warmup next week, there could be another cold shot during the following weekend. Constant warm/colder spells with rain storms seem likely, but it wont take much more than perfect timing to get some type of snow event to occur. Something to watch as we head into March.
2/17/2020
WILL THE “WINTERLESS” WINTER CONTINUE?
You don’t have to be a meteorologist to realize that this winter has been everything but, winter! We started off with a lot of cold and some snow and ice events in December and most were probably thinking we were going to be in for a nasty winter. Well, that was not the case at all. We have seen well above average temps with well below average snowfall. The million-dollar question is why? Have we seen the last of the snow for the season? Below, I will try my best to explain what’s going on. Warning: It will be a bit technical, simply because it has to be.
WHY SO MILD, WHERE’S THE SNOW?
It is very hard or nearly impossible to get snow storms without cold air. Although there have been some cold shots this winter, they were short-lived and didn’t time up with a storm which is what needs to happen in order to get snow storms around here. So why is this the case?
Blocking, or the lack of blocking I should say. There are teleconnections that meteorologist use to do long-range forecasting. Without getting “too” technical, I am going to mention a few of them and what they mean. One of the main factors in the formation of blocking is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When it is in a negative phase, we usually can lock in cold air and a good storm track for snow. In a positive phase however, it is fairly difficult to get consistent cold and snow. For weeks and weeks, we have been stuck in a very positive phase, meaning a lot of mild days and rain storms, not snow storms.
The Artic Oscillation (AO), another parameter to use which follows the same pattern and has also been in a very positive phase. Remember the famous “Polar Vortex?” Well, it also plays a big role. It has been super strong all season. When it is strong, it stays locked up by the North Pole, preventing pieces of it from breaking off and heading south into Canada and the US. It is when the vortex is in a weaker state where pieces flow down into the US, bringing a lot of cold and usually a snowy storm track.
While all of this may seem technical, the impacts can be discussed very simply. The common storm track this season has either been over southern New England, or west of the area. This means that while there may be a quick initial burst of snow or mix (especially inland), warmer air from the south takes over, bringing us rain storms rather than snow storms. Will this pattern change before it’s too late? Let’s take a look
DONE WITH SNOW? NOT “SO” FAST…
Let me start off by saying while an abundance of snow or cold is NOT likely, I do think we can squeeze some snow/cold during the late February-Mid March timeframe. Why? There are some signs of a pattern change. Let me explain
The NAO which I mentioned before appears to come down from its very positive phase, to more of a slightly positive or near neutral phase. This would help create some type of blocking, allowing for an increase shot at some cold and maybe even snow. The Climate Forecasting System (CFS) long-range model, GFS, and EMCWF medium to long-range models all indicate that some sort of pattern change is likely. I think colder air is a good bet but will we see snow? That’s a much harder question to answer.
Timing is everything, and in a winter like this, everything must come together perfectly for a major snowstorm in my opinion.
So, while this winter season for you snow lovers out there has been dreadful, there is some hope for at least a better-looking pattern for cold and maybe even some snow. Only time will tell, and the time is certainly ticking…
2/06/2020
FROM HEAVY RAIN TO STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY?
Expect a wet and mild day on Friday with pockets of heavy rain through early afternoon. Then, the winds will really start to crank!
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Rain: On/Off, some heavy early Friday AM right through early afternoon on Friday.
Wind: Starts just after lunchtime Friday, dies off after midnight.
Worst Part: Damaging winds, with gusts over 50 MPH for most, over 60 MPH for SE CT very possible between 2-7 PM Friday!
Impacts: If winds do gust in the 50-60+ MPH range, expect scattered power outages and tree damage. Be prepared to have two hands on the wheel when commuting home from work on Friday….
QUICK EXPLANATION
Part 1, which was today’s cold/damp weather is heading out with part 2 right behind it. A low-pressure system will ride right over NW CT during tomorrow afternoon which is fairly uncommon for this time of year. What is very unusual is the storm will be rapidly intensifying to a sub 970 MB low (which is very low)! While we will not see any major precip as the storm intensifies (snow showers possible, especially over NW CT), all of the state will experience strong, potentially damaging winds.
The best timing and location for the strongest winds appears to be between 2-5 PM in SE CT where winds could gust over 60 MPH! That is strong enough to cause some tree and power issues. A rare High Wind Warning is in effect there. Wind Advisory covers the rest of the state with gusts to 50 MPH possible.
2/05/2020
A LITTLE ICE, A LOT OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK
Even though there will be some wintry weather with this next system, the majority of what falls will be in the form of rain, especially for those along the shore which may not see more than a few sleet pellets Wednesday night.
SYSTEM BREAKDOWN
Start Time: Mix begins around midnight, changes to rain at shore, freezing rain/sleet inland through mid-morning. Some scattered showers with warming temps everywhere Thursday afternoon. There looks to be another batch of rain during the first half of Friday.
End Time: The rain may end as a touch of snow/snow showers Friday evening. Temps will drop off quickly as well.
Worst Part: Early Thursday AM (Mix), Friday AM (Heavy Rain?)
Impacts: Icy surfaces, especially inland on Thursday morning. School delays very possible away form the shore. Slow travel Friday morning if the heavy rain comes in around that time.
QUICK EXPLANATION
The next storm system is just hours away! With a storm track just west or right over Connecticut, you know what this means… RAIN! With that said, there is enough cold air initially in place that most places will see a touch of sleet. Then, all eyes will be on what the surface temps end up doing. For inland areas, it appears that surface temps will be a or below freezing with rain falling. This is the perfect recipe for some icy surfaces.
I do expect some school delays, mainly in the colder spots tomorrow. The precip also looks relatively light so road treatment should work pretty well.
After the messy morning, expect temps to rise above freezing, with the exception for a few of the usual towns which may hold near freezing through most of the day. Scattered showers with temps in the 40s for most.
Another round of rain, some of which could be on the heavy side looks to come in during the first half of Friday. As the system finally wraps up Friday evening, colder air works in and a few snow showers are possible.
1/31/2020
Super Bowl Weekend Rain/Snow Showers?
While a big coastal storm will stay just offshore and spare us form any major impacts, there will likely be some scattered rain and snow showers around through the upcoming weekend.
System Breakdown
Start Time: Light rain/snow shower threat begins Friday evening
End Time: Light rain/snow shower threat ends by Monday AM
Worst Part: Early Sunday AM. Quick coating of snow in some spots?
Impacts: Very Isolated slick spots, especially in the coldest locations.
Quick Explanation
The first time frame for some rain/snow showers will be Friday evening and overnight. The best chance for a touch or rain or snow would be eastern CT. A flurry or sprinkle can be expected through the afternoon statewide on Saturday. The next time frame, and probably the most impactful (still not a big deal at all!) looks to come in after midnight on Sunday with some steadier snow showers. A coating is possible in the colder locations. The last batch of snow showers looks to come in during the Super Bowl. I can’t rule out a few slick spots by the time the last snap happens, so take it slow heading home.
There are still some uncertainties on the exact timing, but just be ready for a touch of rain or snow, none of which will cause any major issues.
1/24/2020
Snow Last Saturday, Rain This Saturday?
Well, for those snow lovers, we finally saw some plowable snow last Saturday with a 2-5 inch storm! Sadly, while this weekend will feature some heavy precipitation again, this time it will come in the form of a cold rain… Nothing is worse than a cold rain, am I right?
Storm Breakdown
Start Time: Light rain/drizzle begins Saturday morning (Slick spots in the hills?)
End Time: Ends before midnight Saturday
Worst Part: 5-9 PM with heavy rain, gusty winds, Thunder?
Impacts: Isolated slick spots Saturday AM, poor drainage flooding likely during the evening.
Quick Explanation
Even though I am expecting 99% of this storm to be rain, there is a chance with some fresh snowpack that is still left on the ground that ground temperatures could be around freezing first thing Saturday morning. As some light rain/drizzle begins to fall, this would result in isolated slick roads/walkways. I don’t think it will be a widespread issue though.
Most of the day will feature some annoying light/cold rain with breezy winds as well. Between about 5-9 PM, the main area of rain will push through the state from southwest to northeast. Some thunder is even possible during this time! Pockets of poor drainage flooding can be expected due to a partially frozen ground and melting snow.
Once this system exits the area, we will likely enter another week with little if any weather impacts. The next threat for a potential storm doesn’t come until Superbowl Weekend (next weekend)…
1/17/2020
Finally, Some Plowable January Snow?
For most plow drivers and all snow lovers, the first few weeks of the new decade were very disappointing. Thankfully for them, that’s about to change. While the first snowstorm of year will not be a blockbuster, several inches of plowable snow looks very likely for most of CT on Saturday January 18th 2020.
Storm Breakdown
Start Time: From Southwest to Northeast CT Between 2-4 PM
End Time: By 1 AM Sunday
Snowfall Totals: 3-6” for most of CT, 1-3 far SE CT with a change to rain
Impacts: Slippery travel is expected Saturday afternoon and overnight
Quick Explanation
Although this storm will be a quick hitter, only lasting about 9 hours, the system will be rather dynamic. This means that you can expect a period of heavy snow between around 6-10 PM. Snow will accumulate rather quickly during this time frame. There is still a question on now far north the mixing line gets. Southeast CT likely sees a change to rain for the last few hours of the storm which is why they will see the lower snowfall totals.
The latest guidance suggest everywhere else would stay all snow. If this where to change, areas in southern CT would likely see lower snowfall totals than I am currently forecasting.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
American Meteorological Society 100th Annual Meeting, Boston 2020
45th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference